Navigating Life's Uncertainties: A Reflection

Today, after dropping off my children at school, I found myself reflecting on an incident. A young girl had fallen and grazed her knee. As she cried, seemingly more from embarrassment than pain, an adult comforted her, praising her bravery and encouraging her to continue. While the adult’s intentions were undoubtedly good, I pondered how the approach could have been slightly different.

I firmly believe that as adults, our role is to prepare children for life’s journey, not to smooth their path. This concept is beautifully articulated in Greg Lukianoff and Jonathan Haidt’s book ‘The Coddling of the American Mind’. However, it’s essential to recognise that everyone experiences pain. It’s not about dwelling in discomfort or letting it hinder us, but rather acknowledging our children’s feelings when they’re hurt, then offering reassurance and guidance for what lies ahead.

This brings me to the topic I wish to discuss today: decision-making in the face of an uncertain future. How do we steer when the path ahead seems unclear?

We often worry about the future, despite the fact that we can only truly live in the present. Some argue that the future doesn’t exist, suggesting that our imagined future is merely a figment of our imagination, not reality. After all, the future is inherently unknowable.

But doesn’t planning for the future necessitate making decisions in the present? Certainly, but that’s not the same as claiming to know how the future will unfold. We may not be able to predict the future, but we can prepare for it, as Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital astutely observes.

Some propose that we should view life as a series of short runs that constitute the long run. However, the outcomes of these short runs are unpredictable, meaning the long run may not always turn out as expected. I don’t believe we need different rules for planning short and long runs.

At this juncture, I advocate for Bayesian thinking, using probabilities to make decisions. It’s a straightforward method, but far from simplistic. The notion that we can tilt the odds of a desired outcome in our favor, or at least provide downside protection, by knowing enough about a situation is quite appealing.

This approach forms a fundamental part of my life philosophy. I’ve realized that much of my thought process is rooted in Bayesian principles. It’s my guiding principle, if you will. I don’t need hundreds of different models or algorithms to make decisions; a few fundamental ideas suffice.

This applies to any high-level activity requiring a degree of skill, be it parenting, prescribing treatment, investing, or practicing jiu-jitsu.

Simplicity doesn’t equate to ease or basicness. When I refer to simplicity, I’m talking about fundamental concepts, core structures, and constructs necessary for mastering a skill or activity. Foundational ideas are critical.

Observe any master of any game, sport, activity, or profession, and you’ll notice a simple approach to their chosen craft. But this simplicity is underpinned by fundamental core ideas that they understand deeply. These are advanced fundamentals, high-level fundamentals that we should strive to possess.

We don’t need to learn every technique, move, strategy, or algorithm out there. Doing so would only lead to confusion. Plus, it’s impossible to learn every single solution to all of life’s problems. But if you understand the fundamentals, you can build and create solutions that work very well, affording you the flexibility and creativity to respond to different situations. Instead of spreading yourself too thin, go deep!

This applies to parenting as well. It’s unrealistic to expect to learn every single parenting strategy out there. Different strokes for different folks and situations. It’s far better to understand the fundamentals so you can respond uniquely to any situation.

So, where do you learn these fundamentals? Experience, self-reflection, reading, mentorship, and time. You need to develop the discipline to master the fundamentals. It may seem dull or boring on the surface, but trust me, there are subtleties and details to the fundamentals that you’ll only discover if you commit to mastering them.

For instance, in my parenting journey, the concept of ‘connection’ is crucial. It might sound esoteric, but it’s about being sensitive and aware of my child’s feelings and noticing changes in their emotions. It requires suspending my own judgements, immediate thoughts, and the need to fix their feelings. It requires effort to stay with the feelings they bring and then validate them. It sounds simple, but it’s not easy, and there is subtlety. If you get it just right, it works like magic. For more of these sorts of ideas, check out www.huddlewisdom.com/practice.

Another example from my jiu-jitsu journey. The basic movement of the hips and the use of a frame with my skeletal structure in executing maneuvers is much more effective than using muscular strength.

Yet another example, focusing on the core qualities of what makes a good business is better than worrying about price fluctuations of the company’s stock, which can move up and down unpredictably over time, but that’s got nothing to do with the quality of a business.

Again, there are subtleties to these fundamental ideas, but you won’t discover them unless you decide that you are going to master them.